Australia’s road to South Africa 2010 starts now

Guest article by Martin Cassidy

*NB: For those quickly looking for the preview of Australia vs. Qatar, scroll down through the more general information to “The Socceroos”.

Asian World Cup qualification for 2010 kicks off this Wednesday, with Australia commencing its campaign at home against Qatar. While this may not initially seem the most daunting of tasks for a team who reached the final 16 of the 2006 World Cup, it is important to understand the realities of the challenge ahead.

Two preliminary elimination rounds have already been contested in Asia, hence 20 nations remain. These 20 are divided into 5 groups of 4, with each group’s teams to play each other home and away between February 6 and June 21. The best 2 teams of each group advance to the final round, consisting of 10 teams divided into another 2 groups of 5, from which the best 2 of each group qualify for 2010. The third placed nations of each group play-off for the right to contest the intercontinental play-off against the winner of Oceania, most likely New Zealand in late 2009. Therefore, 4 AFC countries are guaranteed representation in South Africa with a strong probability of a 5th spot.

If you are reading this in Europe, South America or Africa, you may be asking the question, ‘what sort of idiot thinks there are World Cup qualifiers this week’? Fair question. Due to the large qualifying schedule required in Asia, there are not enough FIFA “International” dates to accommodate the amount of matches necessary. As a result, the opening two fixtures, February 6 and March 26, fall on FIFA “Friendly” dates. This is not a problem for the vast majority of the 20 nations whose players are either domestically-based or play in other Asian leagues. In some cases, leagues cease playing so as to best prepare the national team while other Asian league are on hiatus. For stronger nations however, Australia being the most extreme case, players who are based in Europe will have great difficulty combining their commitments to both club and country, which is of course if their clubs allow it. As an example, Australians employed in the English Premier League played for their clubs mid last week, then again on the weekend, then immediately fly 24 hours across Europe to the farthest point of Asia – south-eastern Australia – to play a World Cup qualifier Wednesday night, before immediately embarking on the return trip so as play for their clubs again on the weekend. You’re probably tired just reading that.

To place in context Australia’s predicament with travel, 15 players are returning from Europe of which 12 arrive home between Monday and Tuesday morning. Remember, the match is Wednesday night. Compounding matters, none of the 12 has ever trained with (or likely met) their national coach. Furthermore, the 15 travellers do not include another 8 European-based regular Socceroos who are unavailable through injury, fitness or because they played club games on Sunday. In contrast, Australia’s opponent has been in camp for 6 weeks and arrived in the host city 9 days prior to the match. And they only have one player based in Europe. Meanwhile other Asian powerhouses such as Japan, Korea Republic and Iran will also face this challenge but it is obviously less of a burden to fly Munich to Tehran than London to Melbourne. And even Asia’s highest ranked team Japan has only very few players in Europe. While this may read like I am presenting excuses in case we lose, please realise there is nothing here other than facts. With that said, let us now assess the task at hand.


4½ Spots for Asia

As was the situation for the past two World Cups, Asia has been allocated 4.5 places by FIFA. However, following Iran and Bahrain failing in the intercontinental play-offs for ’02 and ’06 against Ireland and Trinidad & Tobago respectively, Asia’s play-off representative shall this time face the winner of Oceania. The only time these confederations directly faced off was the remarkable ’97 contest when Iran advanced at the expense of the Socceroos. With Australia now in the AFC and having performed so successfully in the last World Cup, Asia has been rewarded with this seemingly easier task and supposedly a 5th qualifier, although New Zealand would probably fancy themselves against teams that Trinidad could beat. The difference now is, with Australia plus the four AFC qualifiers of last time, the play-off nation will be much stronger than in the past.

An investigation of recent major Asian competitions reveals a steady pattern of dominance from a select few. The last three World Cups have seen Japan, Korea Republic (referred to here as Korea) and Saudi Arabia repeatedly qualify. Iran has made two of these and China one. Australia qualified for 2006 via Oceania and a play-off with Uruguay. The 2007 Asian Cup saw each of these same nations, except China, reach the quarter finals and beyond. The winner however was Iraq, with Saudi Arabia, Korea and Japan next best. Iraq was also at the 2004 Olympics where they reached the semi final following a defeat of Australia in the previous round. Japan and Korea were Asia’s other qualified nations. And the 2008 Olympic qualifying competition proved remarkably close before Australia, Japan and Korea advanced narrowly ahead of Iraq (by 1 point), Saudi Arabia (by 2 points) and Bahrain (by 1 point) respectively. Iran was eliminated in the first round from the group won by the Saudis ahead of Australia’s Olyroos. For Sydney 2000 it was again Japan and Korea, along with Bahrain, who qualified.

The trends continue through club football and the Asian Champions League. It is no surprise that of the 2007 quarter finalists, Japan and Korea each had two representative clubs, with Saudi Arabia, Iran, Syria and UAE one each. Japan’s Urawa Reds ultimately defeated Sepahan of Iran for the title, while Australia’s Sydney FC performed admirably with draws home and away against Urawa in the group stage, only failing by 1 point to eliminate the eventual champion. Likewise, the Asian Games at u/23 level consistently produces similar outcomes, dominated recently by Iran, Japan and Korea. There was however a change to that in 2006 when Qatar won the gold medal at home, defeating Iraq in the final while Iran defeated Korea for the bronze. Should these trends continue the 2010 World Cup positions will surely include Japan and Korea and probably Saudi Arabia, with Australia battling for one of two remaining chances among Iran, Iraq, China, and perennial near-misses Bahrain and Uzbekistan.


2010 qualifying: Group of Death

With Australia seeded one for the World Cup draw, we were certain of avoiding Japan, Korea, Saudi Arabia and Iran. On paper, these five nations are most likely to be the five Asian qualifiers in South Africa, with due respect to Oceania’s champion. However, football is not played on paper and the Socceroos’ first Asian experience at the 2007 Asian Cup proved exceedingly more difficult than expected. With that in mind, a careful study of the AFC seedings for the draw clearly indicated China, Iraq and Qatar were the teams to avoid from the respective pots. Australia got them all in Group A.

Granted the travel could actually have been more problematic (try getting to Turkmenistan), and the away fixtures are not scheduled for the most extreme climatic conditions (Iraq in Dubai and Qatar in Doha during June is not quite as bad as July-September heat!), but as football opponents they are extremely good. Iraq is the current Asian Cup champion, having defeated Australia, Korea and Saudi Arabia on route to claiming that honour. They welcome back striker Emad Mohammed, one of Asian club football’s best, after missing the Asian Cup. But Iraq has lost its Asian Cup coach, replacing him with Egil Olsen who coached Norway to the World Cup in 1994 and 1998. He is a defensive, unattractive tactician although Norway did defeat eventual runners-up Brazil at France ’98. Meanwhile Qatar is the current Asian Games champion, having won the tournament on home soil when defeating Iraq in the final. And China was a World Cup finalist in 2002 before falling at this very hurdle last time around. Be certain they are leaving no stone unturned to ensure the same fate does not befall them this time. Unfortunately for all, two of these nations will be eliminated a full two years out from the 2010 World Cup.

Each of the teams will take different approaches to their home fixtures due to varying considerations and circumstances. Australia will use its home games as a major source of revenue raising, thus selecting host cities and stadia on the basis of capacity, demand and state government incentives. For example, the match against Qatar may be best suited in cooler-climate Hobart, better for the returning European-based players and troubling for the Qataris. Instead, the Qataris are better acclimatised than us after nine days here, while a likely 10 of the starting 11 Socceroos flew in Monday to a hot and humid 33 degrees in Melbourne. Qatar’s home games, if their league and Asian Games are any indication, could be played before very small crowds. Iraq is hosting its fixtures in Dubai so crowd support may be muted but like Qatar, they have the advantage of the desert heat. (It is important to note here that in 2006 Asian Cup qualifying, an A-League-based Australia accounted for Kuwait 2-0 in Sydney before the best available Socceroos wilted in the heat to lose 0-2 away). China on the other hand has opted to host their games at altitude, 1890m above sea-level. While this is within FIFA’s new 2500m restrictions, the Chinese FA and their Serbian coaches obviously feel there is an advantage to be gained.

Irrespective of the reasons, there is one common factor to each team’s home games: in this group you must win at home to be any chance of advancing to the final round. Assuming the worst team earns at least 1 point in 6 matches, it is mathematically impossible not to advance with 12 points; I am confident 10 points should be enough. That means winning your 3 home games and getting at least one away draw would be the minimum requirement plus a positive goal differential is imperative. With this in mind, and considering the past result in Kuwait, Australia must not be satisfied with anything less than a 2 goal win over Qatar this week.


The Socceroos – Verbeek and the Dutch influence

“If the organisation within the team is right and you have some special players in your team, then it’s great. That’s what we have with Australia” – Guus Hiddink, following the World Cup heroics against Croatia.

The Dutch system and all that involves has been remarkably successful for Australia. Hiddink’s work with the Socceroos is obviously the stand out but FFA technical director Rob Baan has continued this with his development of the Olyroos and his one game in charge of the Socceroos, an impressive 1-0 win over Nigeria. For a variety of reasons the combination of flexibility and fluidity in play, along with a disciplined and heavy work rate mentality has been perfect for a group of players who already possessed skill, versatility and a strong work ethic based on their physical qualities. When Dick Advocaat reneged on his contract, FFA quickly agreed to Pim Verbeek taking the reins for the 2010 qualifying campaign, thus continuing the Dutch methodology.

Appointed early December, Verbeek had the unenviable task of moving his family half way across the world to watch a league he knew next to nothing about, so as to select a domestically-based national team for the opening qualifiers against Qatar at home and China away. And he had less than two months to identify the players, teach them his methods, prepare them tactically and ultimately produce a winning formula. He describes the Dutch approach to football thus: “We always try to put high pressure on our opponents; we try to have the ball as much as possible, control the game. We don’t look forwards to the typical kick and rush game (of British football). We always try to find the combination football... (but it) depends on the quality of the players and the players that are available.” Speaking to SBS three days after his appointment by FFA, the final line is in reference to whether or not he has the best Socceroos available. The rest creates a vision of Australia’s play under Hiddink.

Verbeek has considerable coaching experience under the Dutch masters and in Asia. When assistant to Hiddink, he was part of Korea’s run to the 2002 World Cup semi final, assisted Advocaat with the same team at the 2006 World Cup (where they drew subsequent runners-up France 1-1) and took charge of the team through to the end of the 2007 Asian Cup. Despite much criticism from Australian commentators regarding Korea’s problems at the Asian Cup, they did finish 3rd without their best three players through injury, including Park Ji Song of Manchester United. They drew Saudi Arabia 1-1, qualified from the group, overcame a superior opponent in Iran on penalties, only lost the semi final to Iraq 3-4 on penalties, and then defeated Japan for 3rd also on penalties. As such, despite not scoring a goal in the last 417 minutes of play at the tournament, Korea’s defence held out for even longer and Verbeek got the results needed. He took Iraq to penalties while Australia was comprehensively outplayed in losing 1-3 to the same opponent. He defeated Japan on penalties while Australia lost to the same team in that manner. And all this was achieved without his three best players. I don’t think Verbeek did such a bad job with Korea after all.

Verbeek has inherited fellow Dutchman Baan to assist him through his knowledge of the Olyroos and his assessment of the A-League. Remarkably, he also inherited his predecessor Graham Arnold who stayed on as assistant in the same role as the Australian played when Hiddink took charge. Ultimately his experience and knowledge of Australia’s players at home and abroad makes him useful to the new coach. But Verbeek has also brought in another assistant, indeed another Dutchman, in Henk Duut. Duut’s official role is to remain based in Europe and act as the eyes and ears, watching the Socceroos, identifying other Australians and importantly scouting our opponents overseas. This does not always run smoothly, as his recent trip to Doha to watch a Qatar friendly proved – the Dutchman was barred entry. Duut has vast experience, playing ten years in the Dutch top flight before coaching club sides in Holland and Japan. He worked as assistant to Verbeek during the latter’s brief spell coaching the national team of Netherlands Antilles in 2004, before being recruited by Ruud Gullit to assist at giants Feyenoord, a club for which he played. He remained the assistant there for three years until mid 2007 and could be viewed as a slightly younger version of Verbeek.

Like all great coaches, Verbeek is a highly intelligent man who is not prone to grand statements or being adversely affected by the big occasion. He accepted the Australia job in the knowledge it would be an enormous challenge, in large part due to the likelihood of not having had the Europeans available to him. His response to this is again something Hiddink would say: “We don’t think about problems – we think about solutions.” This is in stark contrast to Arnold who boldly stated anything short of reaching the final at the Asian Cup would be a failure, and always looked upon games as Australia’s to win or lose with no regard for the qualities of the opponent. When it all unravelled following a last minute draw with Oman and loss to Iraq, he publicly accused the players of not wanting to be there and having too many egos. FFA CEO Ben Buckley attempted the PR damage control the following day, suggesting Arnold was caught up in the heat of the moment – that’s sport. But as SBS’s Craig Foster pointed out, if that is how you react in the heat of the moment, you are not equipped for the intense pressure of coaching international football.

With all that is required of great coaches, Hiddink demonstrated with Australia that the ability to react to your opponent, assess the situation and make the right adjustments at the right time is what defines success at this level. It means attacking when an ordinary person would instinctively defend, selecting players to fit the right tactical structure rather than succumbing to external pressures, and ultimately turning the match around from the sidelines when all seems lost. As Kipling put it, “If you can keep your head when all about you, are losing theirs and blaming it on you; If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you, but make allowance for their doubting too.” That is how to react under pressure.


Verbeek and his selection headache

It seemed a certainty that Verbeek would not have the option of calling on any of the European-based players for the first qualifier in Melbourne, given it falls on a ‘friendly’ date. Clubs are only required to give leave to players for two days prior to an international friendly, surely making the trip from Europe logistically impossible for this task. Therefore, Verbeek nominated 37 A-League players for a training camp in Sydney in early January, consisting of 22 senior players and a 15-man Olyroos squad. He did however make it clear from the start there were concerns about what he had seen in the domestic competition and reserved the right to call on the Europeans if he needed them. Over the following weeks, and three A-League camps of two days each, those concerns solidified in his mind.

Prior to the first camp he stated of the league, “I saw great goals, but also unbelievable mistakes. It’s up to me to find out if the same players make the same mistakes because then I cannot use them.” His initial impression was not entirely negative however, recognising the talent particularly among the strikers available to him: “If I think I can do it with Aloisi, Thompson and Griffiths, then I will leave Cahill in England.” After the second camp he hinted at the direction he was heading when saying, “There are a lot of talented players (in the A-League) – the question is can I make the right use of them for the important game ahead.” Verbeek also indicated the type of players he needed: “The pressure of the Qatar game, that we have to win and will have 55,000 people, will be unbelievable. I definitely look for players who are mentally strong. I am looking for players who will boost team organisation.”

There were few surprises in his first training squad, other than the non-selection of former Fulham player Ahmad Elrich and Melbourne goalkeeper Theoklitos. Former Socceroos captain Craig Moore was left out although Verbeek made it clear that he knew Moore from his time in the German Bundesliga when he assisted Advocaat at Monchengladbach. Advocaat had made Moore captain of Glasgow Rangers and brought him across to Germany, hence Verbeek was satisfied the now ageing Moore could rest instead of partaking in the camps. Based on the need for experience of high pressure matches, international experience and an ability to adapt to the Dutch style of play, anyone with experience under Hiddink or Baan was surely at an advantage. This included World Cup heroes Aloisi, Thompson, Moore, Milligan and Covic. It required players who could adapt to specific roles in positions not generally utilised in the A-League, such as the wide forwards in a 4-3-3 formation and overlapping full-backs. Also required was an altered mental approach, remembering the Dutch philosophy of ball possession as opposed to long balls, route one football, or “kick and rush” as Verbeek put it. These attributes proved very difficult for Verbeek to find here.

The players who could tick at least most of the necessary boxes included the five World Cup players mentioned previously. Other A-League players such as Popovic, Vidmar and Tiatto met the criteria and were all playing well but having retired from the national team, were no longer considered. Other veterans like Muscat and Corica were enlisted, along with a host of home-based Olyroos holding their places for the later camps. One selection of note for the third camp was 18 year old James Holland of Newcastle Jets, a player yet to be called up for the Olyroos by Arnold, not even for Verbeek’s first camp. With the team now taking shape, it was clear there would be problems with the full-backs, defensive midfielder and even at centre-back.
Topor-Stanley, a left full-back was the only obvious choice after Dean Heffernan’s stellar season, following his return from Germany, was cut short by a broken leg. The Olyroos’ left-back is less attacking than Heffernan and had some worrying moments in the crucial Olympic qualifier against Iraq. Likewise, Newcastle captain Jade North, a 2004 Olympian and fringe Socceroo, is not a naturally attacking right full-back, while the logical selection for the holding midfielder in place of Grella would be Simon Colosimo but he would not have enough time to learn this specific role. Others considered automatic selections were doing themselves no favours by their performances in the league, the end of season pressure magnified by the knowledge Pim was watching.

Strikers John Aloisi, with 7 goals in his only 12 games, and Joel Griffiths, the leading scorer, were playing at a level worthy of a return to Europe. Archie Thompson was occasionally recreating the form that encouraged Hiddink to bring him to PSV but in Melbourne’s final home game missed some straight forward chances. At Sydney, Alex Brosque was making a strong case to play wide left in a front three, while Olyroos captain Mark Milligan put in a couple of moments that must have caused Verbeek serious concern. In the final round of the regular season, with the top four clubs level on points, Verbeek’s questions seem to have been answered by performances he could not risk having repeated against Qatar. His comments after the round told the story: “I saw the important games last weekend and you can see players under pressure that they didn’t bring the same performance that I have seen before... That’s why I was here for five weeks. No-one can tell me I didn’t give them the chance.” With that he named an extended 39-man squad, 19 of which were in Europe, to face Qatar and his doubts were probably vindicated in the first week of the finals. Sydney and Queensland played out an ugly 0-0 draw in which Brosque had two clear chances to score and was at fault for not doing so. Meanwhile Aloisi’s Central Coast lost 0-2 away to Newcastle despite him almost having a hat-trick. Aloisi missed a first half penalty, scored what would have been an equaliser before being incorrectly judged offside, and smashed a free-kick through the wall and passed the ‘keeper, only to see his shot cannon off the inside of the upright. Whether it is luck or skill, such chances must be put away for Australia.


The Socceroos

Unlike Graham Arnold, who stated after the Asian Cup that we are not as good as we thought we were, I believe this team is good enough to potentially win the World Cup – why not? Uruguay were the only previous world champion not at Germany ’06 and the only team to get the better of Brazil, head-to-head over the home and away legs, during the last World Cup qualifying campaign. They even beat Argentina in the last round before the Socceroos ended their dream. Australia then comprehensively outplayed European champion Greece to win 1-0, drew a full-strength Netherlands 1-1 in Rotterdam, and at the World Cup were only defeated by Brazil and champions Italy, the world numbers 1 and 2 at the end of the tournament. Along the way they beat Asian champion Japan and, in every sense but the 2-2 score line, got the better of Croatia who are now in the world’s top 10 and conquered England in Euro ’08 qualifying. With the right coach, anything is possible for this group of Socceroos. Even so, the match with Qatar could be extremely difficult.

The most notable performance of recent times that may give an indication of Verbeek’s tactical set up is that of the Socceroos against Nigeria under Rob Baan in November. Baan opted for a change in tactics, setting the team out with the regular defensive four including attacking full-backs, a diamond midfield of Valeri behind and Carle in front, and a two-man strike partnership. The team played compact, possession-based passing football with width created by the full-backs and wingers. The result was a well deserved 1-0 victory to Australia. In a trial match played Saturday between the A-League members of Verbeek’s 39-man squad and an under-strength Melbourne Victory, the new coach also opted for the two men upfront, playing Aloisi and Griffiths together in the first half, and Thompson and Brosque in the second. This is an important departure from the 4-3-3 system which was in part utilising the strengths of Mark Viduka. As much as I admire Viduka’s talent, I actually think the team may be better balanced without him, particularly with a quicker striker now available in Scott McDonald.

Verbeek’s European selections confirm this formation to be the most likely way he will set the team out in Melbourne. With Viduka, Chipperfield, Sterjovski and Kisnorbo being omitted for various reasons, none of which being form, and the subsequent exclusion from the squad of Grella, Kewell, Carle and Beauchamp in recent days, again for various reasons, the starting XI has become a clearer vision. The 4-3-3 typically Dutch formation requires the wide forwards to remain in advanced positions so as not to be 4-5-1. They must stay out wide, making late runs onto the full-backs and possess the skill and willingness to get beyond those full-backs in order to create chances in the box. Without Kewell and Sterjovski, and with Carney likely to play at left-back in the absence of Chipperfield, this system is not ideal for Wednesday night. Furthermore, with several central strikers available, Verbeek is sure to utilise the diamond midfield 4-4-2 option.

Elsewhere, Valeri is the obvious replacement for Grella, a role he performed well against Nigeria. Verbeek has all but stated Moore will start, as Beauchamp’s exclusion should have indicated. Neill and Emerton are automatic selections and along with Carney and Moore, plus Schwarzer in goal, make up the Socceroos’ backline. The midfield will include Cahill, Culina and Bresciano, joining Valeri playing behind them. Upfront, McDonald’s form for Celtic demands his selection and he is likely to be partnered by Kennedy, although Aloisi is a chance. I predict the line-up to be (goalkeeper to strikers, left to right):

Schwarzer; Carney, Moore, Neill, Emerton; Valeri; Bresciano, Cahill, Culina; Kennedy, McDonald. I would predict the remaining members of the 18-man final squad, in order of likelihood of being a substitute, to be: Aloisi, Wilkshire, Holman, Thompson, Troisi, North, Covic. At present the squad numbers 21 and no longer includes Joel Griffiths or Mark Milligan due a hamstring strain and broken nose respectively from the trial match Saturday.

The recent form of several of these players in Europe has been outstanding. Scott McDonald is the leading goal scorer in the Scottish Premiership this season, with 15 goals in the league and 21 in all competitions. Among his other goals are 2 in the Champions League, one of which was the winner against AC Milan. His type of predatory striker has been lacking for Australia and may well have made the difference at the World Cup. He scored twice on Saturday in the Scottish Cup and was joined on the score sheet elsewhere by Josh Kennedy, scoring one and assisting in another for his new club Karlsruhe, sending the previously goal-shy club up to fifth in Germany.

David Carney also scored Saturday as well as having two shots blocked and a header cleared away. Brett Holman scored in Holland the previous weekend and has been playing regularly there, as has Luke Wilkshire. In England, Lucas Neill, Brett Emerton and Tim Cahill are all regular starters for their clubs, the latter having scored goals in the Premier League against each of Manchester United, Arsenal and Chelsea this season. (If Verbeek can find the right formation and combinations, Australia’s abundance of natural goal scorers (Viduka, Kewell and Bresciano included) could produce some outstanding results). Meanwhile, Bresciano only played the last half hour for Palermo and Culina was not used by PSV, leaving these two fresh for Wednesday.

Looking back only a couple of weeks, it was impossible to imagine an essentially full-strength Socceroos would line up this week. Had the FFA known earlier, they certainly would have charged more for tickets, but that’s a welcome reward for the true fans who bought most of the 55,000 seats in the stadium when it was still to be an A-League outfit. The players stood up to their clubs in greater numbers than ever, with Everton boss David Moyes being the most vocal in his disapproval of the trip. He claimed Cahill was injured before playing him for 90 minutes Saturday, and earlier stated, “We said it would be better if Tim didn’t go... I think it’s ridiculous that somebody would have to fly half way round the world but Tim has to make his decision whether he goes to play for Australia or not.” Thanks Timmy, you are a legend. Thanks also go to Qantas for arranging first-class return flights for the 12 who played on the weekend in Europe, and to FFA management for their professionalism. I don’t agree with everything they do and maintain their lack of football knowledge is a major problem, but they do handle professional and corporate matters extremely well.

My only caution about the team selections listed here is my awareness of Verbeek, like Hiddink, to do the unexpected. After announcing the extended 39-man squad he said, “I am not here to please players but to win the game. My side will not necessarily comprise the best players but it will be the best team.” Like Hiddink, Verbeek may see something more in Dutch-based Wilkshire than I do, as he may in Holman. Wilkshire is highly adaptable and plays specific roles very well without being brilliant, which Verbeek may initially prefer than say Bresciano. Of Qatar, Verbeek is sure they will try to defend and as I stated previously, anything less than a 2 goal victory for Australia (minimum) will be unsatisfactory. Verbeek’s assessment has been consistent for weeks, “They will not attack. They will wait and wait until you make a mistake... You cannot lose balls in midfield or in the backline (because) they will have very quick, fast strikers... It will be very important for us to be patient.”

Martin Cassidy