Will the Blue Moon rise or fall in 2008?

Rewind almost 12 months and Man City fans probably didn’t know what was going to hit them after a pretty successful Christmas/New Year period. Stuart Pearce’s side had been a bit up-and-down for the pre-Christmas part of their Premiership campaign in 2006 but 3 victories from 3 games from boxing day to New Years Day would have instilled a belief in City fans that better times were around the corner and that the year 2007 was one that held promise for them and hopefully a decent final league position. Unfortunately for Man City the year 2007 (at least the part of it that included Stuart Pearce as manager) would not be so kind besides the promising and in hindsight false dawn that occurred last New Years Day when two Samaras goals earned them victory against Everton.

After that win (and doesn’t it look strange to see the words Samaras and goals together?!), little did Man City fans know that they were about to embark on a goal drought at their home ground of epic proportions (they were not going to score at home for what was remaining of the 2006-07 season). Additionally due in large part to the aforementioned point, they were to be dragged into a relegation battle that threatened at times to take them down to the Championship. Add to this the embarrassing bust-up between Barton and Dabo, the ignominious honour of becoming the team who has scored the least goals at home in a season ever in the top flight (with a paltry 10), and the eventual sacking of Stuart Pearce meant it was a pretty miserable second half of season 2006-07 for Man City and their supporters.

Fast forward to today and it couldn’t be more different for City. They sit 5th in the league, they’re unbeaten at home in the league and due to their chairman’s millions, not to mention a world-class manager and a high league position, they now have a real reason to look towards January with optimism due to the fact they should be in an ideal position to add some genuine quality to their playing squad.

Before their final game of 2007 against Liverpool tomorrow, Sven-Göran Eriksson is armed with the knowledge that, should they take all three points off Liverpool, they will finish the year in 4th position on the table. It really is a remarkable position for them to be in considering how quickly this particular squad was assembled before the season started.

Let’s take a look at a few factors that will go a long way towards helping to determine why it is unlikely that Man City will suffer a similar fade-out to the one suffered after the New Year last season:

Sven


City supporters must be having a bit of a chuckle looking on at what’s happening with a team like Newcastle. The “give him more time” brigade in the English media are working overtime trying to do just that and defend the performance of Sam Allardyce overlooking the fact that managers like Sven and to a lesser extent Ramos at Spurs are showing that good managers are almost always able to get good results quite quickly (without the need for “time”). It must be a little embarrassing for many of them that wrote so disparagingly about Sven that he has so quickly turned City’s fortunes around for them, especially when their darling Big Sam (who don’t forget many in England thought was good enough to take over their national team…) is overseeing some of the least attractive football played by a team in the premiership for many a year.

The brutal reality is in the Premiership at the moment, the top clubs are not-so-coincidentally managed by top foreign (meaning non-English in this case) managers. City, by the virtue of having Sven in charge must feel pretty confident that their good form will continue into next year unlike last year under “Psycho” Pearce. There is quite a large group of teams below City with, if one is honest, similar or even possibly better playing lists than City. Where City can gain an edge over the teams snapping at their heels is with their super-cool and experienced manager. Sven’s experience in the run-in will be priceless and may well be the difference between a place in Europe or not. How he integrates any new signings into the line-up will also be crucial but, judging him on how he performed with his pre-season signings, in Sven City seem to have a manager who would rank in the top four in the Premiership when it comes to man management.

Sven and “Psycho” are like chalk and cheese in many ways; for City fans they will be hoping that under Sven their second half of the season will follow suit and turn out to be the opposite to what happened under Pearce.

January transfer window

Having spent much of my time on Man City fan forums it can be estimated that every couple of minutes someone posts a comment that contains some sort of speculation about who City will bring in over January. Rarely have I ever seen a group of fans so excited by a transfer window. And with good reason, I reckon. They now have some serious Thai money behind them, a high league position snapping at the heels of the “top 4” and a manager with contacts all around the world.

After the success this year of Elano, Petrov and co. who were signed in the pre-season, expectations are high for January and have been fanned further by the loan-signing already of young Mexican starlet Nery Castillo from the old stomping ground of Elano at Shakhtar Donetsk.

Who will City sign then? Don’t ask me; they have been linked with pretty much every player in the world over the last four months and it would be impossible and ultimately a waste of time to give a list of everyone they have been linked with in this article. I will say that I think City could do with signing another striker (even though Castillo has been signed) as their current batch, while showing the odd glimpse of promise, are not going to keep City up where they are now on the table. That is why they need to add to their stable of strikers (remembering the exciting Bojinov will be returning early in 2008 and without a doubt Sven will be letting go a striker or two).

Midfield cover would be great as well and in particular for the excellent Hamman (at his age Didi can’t be expected to shoulder all the defensive midfield duties!). And, without being greedy, a defender and a goalkeeper would top things off nicely for City in January. The defence has been looking more and more shaky of late, and bringing in a world-class central defender would really add to the squads chances of staying where they are now. And as Sven doesn’t appear happy with Isaksson, a world-class stopper is probably needed due to the fact that, as impressive as Hart has been and notwithstanding the promise he shows for the future, having a keeper that young starting would be flirting with danger as it is a position where the best players are usually much older and more experienced.

If, as we have been promised, City both buy and sell players in January it has the potential to have a major impact on the second half of the season for them. The ability of Sven to, after having had a good 6 months now to have identified deficiencies in his squad, go out into the market-place and fix them, could well be the difference between a top 6 finish or not for City come the end of the season.

Home vs. Away form

City’s results at home have been stunning so far, away not so good. That is the way it looks on paper anyway. But on closer inspection I don’t think the gulf between City’s home and away form is as big as it is made out to be by some pundits. The quality of the teams that they have played away from home is better than the quality of team they have played at home and I think this has no doubt had an impact on this stark difference between home and away performances.

Here’s the deal; if the season turns out logically based on the quality of their opponents that they are meeting home and away City will start winning more games away and losing a couple at home as they start playing weaker teams away and stronger at home.

Put simply City have a real chance to improve and/or consolidate their position if the City of Manchester Stadium (COMS) continues to be a fortress regardless of the quality of teams coming there while at the same time they start getting some results against the weaker teams away from home. Obviously if their home performances deteriorate and their away performances stay the same, City will be finishing the season around the middle of the table.

Chelsea aside, City have been competitive and at times unlucky on their travels in every game. I’m pretty sure against weaker opposition that they will be facing away for the remainder of their season they will start to pick up wins on the road. It is their home form that will be the x-factor and ultimately determine how high they will finish the season. I have an inkling they will continue to be strong at home (it will be hard to match what they have done so far, admittedly…) so that bodes well for their final league position.


Regardless of how things in the next five months, ever fatalistic City fans can for once rest assured that surely, even for a team as historically schizophrenic as City, they can go into the New Year thinking that things can’t possibly be as bad as last year. That thought alone will bring comfort to many of their loyal fans. So if you hear an even louder than normal cheer when (notice that I’m saying when, not if) City scores their first goal of 2008 at COMS you will know why…